Nazmul Hasan (Senior Judicial Magistrate at Bangladesh Judicial Service) has posted Quantum and Damages in International Commercial Arbitration: Causation, Valuation, Lost Profits and the Limits of Expert Evidence on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
Damages are often the point at which international commercial arbitration moves from legal principle to economic consequence. Yet quantum is frequently treated as a technical appendix to liability rather than as a distinct adjudicative exercise governed by causation, remoteness, certainty, mitigation and the compensatory principle. This article develops an integrated framework for assessing quantum in cross-border commercial disputes. It examines the relationship between legal causation and economic modelling; the selection of valuation dates and the use of post-breach information; the proof of lost profits; the appropriate use of discounted cash flow, market, asset and cost approaches; and the treatment of mitigation, avoided costs, tax, currency and interest. Particular attention is given to the role and limits of expert evidence. Drawing on the CISG, the UNIDROIT Principles, the 2026 ICC Arbitration Rules, the 2020 IBA Rules on the Taking of Evidence, and leading commercial decisions including The Golden Victory, Bunge v Nidera, Sharp v Viterra and RTI v MUR Shipping, the article argues that experts must assist rather than displace arbitral judgment. Valuation models should be transparent, assumption-driven and capable of sensitivity testing; tribunals should distinguish legal entitlement from financial measurement and should explain the chain from breach to counterfactual, from counterfactual to loss, and from loss to monetary award. The proposed approach seeks to reconcile full compensation with evidentiary discipline, avoiding both speculative overvaluation and artificial under-compensation.
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