Wayne Sandholtz (University of Southern California – School of International Relations; University of Southern California Gould School of Law) & Christopher A. Whytock (University of California, Irvine, School of Law) have posted Are Foreign Affairs (Still) Different? An Empirical Analysis of the Political Question Doctrine (94 University of Chicago Law Review (forthcoming 2027)) on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
As assertions of executive authority have expanded in both foreign and domestic affairs, the political question doctrine has taken on heightened significance as a gatekeeper of judicial review. Yet prior scholarship on the doctrine is almost exclusively doctrinal and normative, leaving little empirical understanding of how courts actually decide motions to dismiss on political question grounds.
To address this gap, this Article presents a systematic empirical analysis of political question doctrine decisionmaking in the U.S. District Courts. Using statistical analysis of an original dataset of more than 350 political question doctrine decisions, it directly tests the competing claims of foreign affairs “exceptionalists” and foreign affairs “normalists.” Consistent with exceptionalist claims, we find that the foreign affairs character of a case substantially increases the likelihood of dismissal on political question grounds. Contrary to the claims of normalists, we find no evidence of the normalization of foreign affairs in the District Courts.
Beyond foreign affairs, the Article also sheds new empirical light on other previously unexplored aspects of political question doctrine decisionmaking. Despite claims that Supreme Court precedents have had little effect on political question doctrine decisionmaking, we present evidence that the Court’s 2012 decision in Zivotofsky v. Clinton led to significantly reduced dismissal rates in the District Courts. Contrary to the widespread belief that the doctrine is no longer frequently applied to dismiss non-foreign affairs cases, we find that the doctrine continues to be robustly applied in domestic contexts, especially in cases raising constitutional law issues. And consistent with prior scholarship on “repeat players” and “one-shotters” in litigation, we find that federal government parties tend to fare better on average than other parties when moving to dismiss claims on political question grounds, and individual parties fare worse on average than other types of parties when opposing dismissal of their claims on political question grounds.
Together, our findings offer new evidence that supports some widely held beliefs about the political question doctrine and challenges others, providing much needed empirical foundations for debates about the doctrine’s proper scope and its implications for judicial review.
Recommended.
