Matthew Tokson (University of Utah – S.J. Quinney College of Law) has posted Artificial Intelligence and the Lessons of History on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
The history of technological advancement is often invoked as a reason for optimism about the future of artificial intelligence. AI supporters infer from history that regulating AI would be counterproductive, because new technologies are typically beneficial to society overall. Those who think AI is unlikely to have much real-world impact also invoke technological history, pointing to prior inventions that failed to live up to their initial hype. Yet the lessons of technological history are not as clear as many believe. This Essay examines several historical episodes where elites made grave errors involving new technologies and threats, sometimes due to excessive optimism and sometimes due to excessive skepticism. History reveals that novel technologies can exceed expectations, have harmful effects on society, cause serious environmental harms, and even risk global catastrophe. Policymakers and regulators should find little basis for complacency about AI in technological history.
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Lawrence Solum