Risto Uuk (Future of Life Institute; KU Leuven), Santeri Koivula (Future of Life Institute), Lorenzo Pacchiardi (Cambridge), Rokas Gipiskis (Future of Life Institute), Laura Caroli & Kamaria Horton (RAND Corporation) have posted Assessing the Empirical Evidence for Loss of Control from Agentic General-Purpose AI on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
Theoretical literature warns that advanced generalist agentic systems might pursue instrumental goals that are misaligned with human preferences, thus posing risks of irreversible loss of human control. The EU’s Code of Practice for General-Purpose AI lists loss of control as a systemic risk that must be assessed, yet no systematic evaluation of the empirical evidence for this risk exists. This study fills that gap. We evaluate 19 recent empirical studies across eight properties identified from threat models (such as strategic deception, situational awareness, and autonomous replication), assessing the quality of evidence across three dimensions: construct validity, content validity, and external validity. Our central finding is that the current body of evidence supports a judgment of loss of control as “weakly plausible.” In our framework, ‘plausibility’ denotes the strength and direction of available evidence, not a probability estimate. Emerging evidence exists across multiple properties, but no study achieves validity thresholds required for a stronger judgment. Validity gaps, particularly in external validity, are widespread. Therefore, our findings highlight the need for more rigorous evaluations of agentic general-purpose AI systems. However, for the most dangerous properties, high external validity may be structurally unachievable under responsible research practices, reflecting a ceiling on feasible evidence rather than absence of the capability. Furthermore, as AI capabilities advance rapidly, empirical assessments may systematically lag behind the capability frontier. Our framework provides a structured baseline for ongoing monitoring as capabilities advance.
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Lawrence Solum