Michael Conklin (Texas A&M University School of Law) has posted THE TWENTY-SECOND AMENDMENT AND A TRUMP THIRD TERM: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CONSTITUTIONAL CONSENSUS IN ACADEMIA on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
Recent statements by President Trump suggesting the possibility of a third term have sparked debate regarding the Twenty-Second Amendment’s interpretation. Some scholars point to the text of the Amendment and argue that twice-elected presidents such as Trump are only barred from being elected to a third term, leaving open the possibility of ascending to the presidency through other means. Other scholars argue that such a loophole is against the intent of the drafters and therefore should not be countenanced. This first-of-its-kind Essay provides the results of an empirical analysis regarding scholarly consensus on the issue. The findings reveal that a significant majority of law journal articles on the subject support the narrow pathway to a third term. However, a majority of the articles published since Trump started discussing the potential of a third term are against this interpretation, illustrating the potential role partisan bias may play. This Essay contributes both an empirical foundation and a normative framework for evaluating one of the most consequential—and understudied—questions in modern constitutional law.
Very interesting.