Ievgenii Shulga (National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine – Department of International Law and Comparative Law) has posted The Ukrainian Precedent and The Transformation of The International Protection Regime: Protracted Temporaries and The Challenge of Legal Uncertainty on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
The International Refugee Protection Regime (IRPR), anchored by the 1951 Convention and its 1967 Protocol, is currently facing an unprecedented existential challenge. While the traditional architecture relies on the individualized Refugee Status Determination (RSD) to grant durable legal standing, the mass displacement triggered by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has exposed the systemic obsolescence of this model in the face of large-scale, protracted aggression.
In a decisive move, the European Union activated its long-dormant Temporary Protection Directive (2001/55/EC), providing immediate sanctuary to over 4.3 million individuals. Simultaneously, the United States leveraged humanitarian parole through the Uniting for Ukraine (U4U) program, which, until its suspension by Executive Order in January 2025, served as a primary, albeit precarious, entry point for approximately 270,000 beneficiaries.
Despite the operational success of these group-based mechanisms in preventing immediate humanitarian catastrophe, they have inadvertently institutionalized a state of “indefinite temporariness”. This article argues that we are witnessing the emergence of a new legal phenomenon — “protracted temporaries”. This category encompasses individuals who remain de facto integrated into host societies while being trapped in a de jure vacuum, devoid of any predictable pathway to permanent residency or international protection. Through a comparative lens, this study dissects the structural flaws of both the EU and U.S. models, advocating for a radical shift toward integration-based legal stabilization.
This study is uniquely informed by my professional experience as the UHP Program Coordinator at Della Lamb Community Services in Kansas City, Missouri. Since 2023, I have directly managed the resettlement and support of over 100 Ukrainian households. These longitudinal observations from the field provide a necessary empirical bridge between high-level policy analysis and the lived reality of legal precarity. By integrating practitioner-based insights with a comparative legal framework, this article aims to ground theoretical arguments in the practical challenges of sustaining integration under conditions of protracted displacement.